Here we go again. Another long winter. Another Hot Stove season to keep us warm.
2024 was the most disappointing, frustrating season I've experienced since moving to Seattle a decade ago. Never before had I required a little time to not think about baseball, especially Mariners baseball, than I did this fall. But the juices are pumping again, surging even. And recently, I fired up the Crystal Ball.
What is the Crystal Ball?
It's my annual attempt at combining (1) what I think Justin & Jerry will do with (2) what I want them do with (3) what I believe ownership will allow them to do.
The Crystal Ball has big plans for 2025. And without adding payroll (okay, maybe a little). I mean, what's the point? By now, we should all know better.
The Ball will once again create a plan that makes the Mariners a World Series contender. Doesn't matter if the organization heeds the All-Knowing's advice. So, let's do it. Let's forecast, perhaps sculpt, the future...
Thursday, November 23rd, the headline reads..
MARINERS WADE INTO SHALLOW WATERS
As a Thanksgiving appetizer, Dipoto and Hollander complete a minor deal for a career on-base machine.
THE FIRST TRADE: DOMINIC CANZONE FOR 1B LAMONTE WADE JR.
The 31-year old Wade is nothing more than a part-time firstbaseman, so it won't cost much to land him. With one year left on his contract, arbitration will reward Wade roughly $4.3 million to do for the Mariners what he's done in back-to-back seasons for the San Francisco Giants. Get on base.
In a part-time role, Wade has walked 138 times over the last 2 seasons, posting a .373 OBP in 2023 and following it up with a .380 OBP in 24. Mariner Twitter will hate the move. I can already imagine the outpouring of snark. A Snark-nado, if you will...
"Oh, that should solve everything"
"Ordering my World Series tickets now"
"This is their big move?"
No, it's not their big move, but it is a move that the Mariners will pair with another.
Tuesday, December 3rd, the headline reads...
ANOTHER TURN FOR TURNER
Free Agent Contract: 1 year, 8.5 million
Justin Turner got on base more than 36-percent of the time in 48 games with the Mariners last season. He also slugged over .400. Those numbers aren't phenomenal, but JT helped the M's improve, and he helped them in more ways than met the eye. The man is a proven leader, a true pro.
With Turner and Wade sharing 1B duties (and that doesn't mean platooning, the splits don't suggest that Wade can't hit lefties or that Turner can't hit right-handers), Jerry & Justin will have two veterans providing professional at-bats, excelling at working counts and getting on base.
Wednesday, December 11th, the headline reads...
MARINERS, PHILLIES PULL OFF WINTER MEETINGS BLOCKBUSTER
Activity has been slow, to say the least, at the WInter Meetings in recent years. But Trader Jerry has work to do in Dallas. And this year, the D in Big D will stand for Deal.
SEATTLE trades SP Luis Castillo & RP Andres Munoz to PHILADELPHIA for OF Kyle Schwarber, 3B Alec Bohm & RP Orion Kerkering
I told you it was a blockbuster.
Let's face it: this roster needs a major boost offensively. If Mariners' Ownership isn't going to purchase the necessary firepower off the free agent market, then the front office has no choice but to trade from their standout pitching depth to get it. Look, I love Luis Castillo, but this rotation remains loaded without him. Plus, he makes $24 million per year, which can be used to acquire not just one, but two, quality bats without boosting payroll.
28-year old Alec Bohm only hit 15 HR last year, but his 44 doubles were second best in the NL. His breakthrough season resulted in an All-Star appearance, but he finished the year poorly and Philly reportedly holds extreme interest in upgrading at 3B with Houston FA Alex Bregman. Bohm is under contract for two more seasons, and at a price ($8m in 2025) that frugal M's ownership will celebrate.
Kyle Schwarber needs no introduction. The 31-year old slugger belted 38 HR for the Phillies last season, his lowest HR total of the last three seasons. But he also raised his batting average 50+ points in 2024 and posted his most complete offensive season since 2019. The downside is that Schwarber has just one year remaining on his contract, but that's a big reason why he'd be available with Bohm in my blockbuster deal.
23-year old Orion Kerkering has wipeout stuff. He struck out 74 batters in 63 innings during his rookie campaign last year. His numbers weren't as good as those of Andres Munoz, but he's younger, cheaper, has suffered less wear-and-tear and is the piece Jerry & Justin would require to include their all-star closer.
Philly gets another quality starter to add to their already impressive arsenal, a backend-of-the-bullpen all-star coming off a career year and who's scheduled to make just $3 mill. But the salary of Munoz continues to rise over the next few seasons, as does the injury risk for a flamethrowing, slider machine who barely got through 2024 without breaking down.
I know, I know, I'm a huge fan of Castillo & Munoz, too. But you have to give to get. And with this deal, the Mariners' offense gets a lot better, Emerson Hancock slides into a still stellar Mariners' rotation and Kerkering might be on the verge of surpassing the more proven Munoz anyway.
** It is worth noting that this isn't the type of trade I expect the Mariners organization to make. IF they trade Castillo, they'll surely acquire offense, but more likely the younger controllable kind. Remember, The Crystal Ball did warn you that this forecast is a blend of prediction, personal desire and accepted restrictions.
Monday, December 23rd, the headline reads...
SANTA DELIVERS A SECOND SACKER
Free Agent Contract: 3 years, $24 million for INF Hyeseong Kim
As an early Christmas present, the Mariners (once again) try to solve their 2B dilemma. This year, they go overseas for their goods. Believe it or not, there are two Koreans named Kim available this offseason, one that's been playing, and playing well, for the Padres for years, and another preparing to make his MLB debut. I'd prefer the established Kim, but I'm trying to be responsible with John's money. God knows he will be. So, the Mariners sign the younger, cheaper, unproven Kim. 25-year old Hyeseong Kim can play SS, 2B or OF.
It's no secret that the Mariners require a 2B upgrade. From Adam Frazier to Kolten Wong to Jorge Polanco, previous attempts to solve this crop-formations-like mystery during the Dipoto Era have all come up dreadfully short. Kim will put the ball in play, steal bases and play solid defense. Like Ha-Seong Kim before him, he'll probably need a year to truly adapt to the big leagues, but it's a gamble I'm willing to take.
Wednesday, January 15h, the headline reads...
CRAWFORD SENT PACKING
Trade: Mariners trade SS JP Crawford to LA Dodgers for RP Anthony Banda
Sound like a salary dump? Good, because it is. Sending JP to a shortstop-needy Dodger franchise that cares little about the cost of things and even less about keeping a journeyman lefty reliever gives Justin & Jerry $10 million more to cover costs of a revamped offense. I don't operate in a world of delusion. The Mariners are just not going to be aggressive spenders, so I've hatched a plan that ownership will actually sign off on rather than live in a fantasy world of spending on household-name superstars and then suffer the disappointment.
Crawford had a bad year in 2024. There's a chance he'll rebound. He certainly won't be worse. But in an effort to set up other offseason possibilities, getting rid of Crawford's salary might be the best contribution he can make to this roster in 2025.
But then, who's going to start at SS, Crystal Ball!?!?!
The next day...
Thursday, January 16th, the headline reads...
MARINERS RE-ROUTE AROZARENA
Trade: Mariners send OF Randy Arozarena to the CHIC for MI Nico Hoerner
M's fans panicked when reports suggested that the Mariners might flip or "re-route" Randy Arozarena this offseason, after having acquired the talented outfielder at the Trade Deadline. I wasn't one of them. Truth is, I prefer to reroute Arozarena. His antics, quite frankly, drove me nuts, made me wonder if he's about winning or about showmanship, as is his league-wide reputation. So, as long as "re-routing" doesn't really mean "salary dumping", I'm moving the outfielder in a straight-up one-for-one, salary-matching trade for scrappy Cubs middle infielder Nico Hoerner.
Hoerner is coming off a bit of a down year, which is actually good--buy him low. The 28-year old has an average 4.3 WAR rating over the last three seasons.The dude is good. And yet, the Cubs are reportedly looking to move him. Now, would they be interested in Arozarena? I don't know. Are they even in the market for another outfielder? After all, they seem pretty set out there with Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki. But the gifted Arozarena does offer terrific upside, he hits the ball out of the park, which Hoerner does not. Maybe there's a deal there. If so, I'm taking it.
Hoerner is a scrapper. He plays a Gold Glove caliber secondbase and shortstop, so I can play him at either position. And the guy DOESN'T STRIKEOUT, which is huge for reasons I shouldn't have to explain. There's no amount of poor offensive strategy or confusing instruction or overworked analytics that are going to keep this guy from putting the ball in play, and I think that's exactly what the Mariners offense requires. And once the play is in play, Nico can make things happen with his speed and aggression.
At this point, The Ball has MLB Network talking heads spinning. I can see the "projected Mariners lineup" graphic already...
SS Hoerner
LF Robles
CF Rodriguez
DH Schwarber
3B Bohm
C Raleigh
RF Raley
1B Turner/Wade
2B Kim
And then there's the bench...
Moore, Garver, Turner/Wade & Haggerty or Rivas or Rojas
** Haniger released
With a starting rotation that still looks like this...
Gilbert
Kirby
Miller
Woo
Hancock
And the bullpen...
CL Kerkering
SU Brash
SU Santos
MR Chargois
MR Taylor
MR Snider
MR Banda (L)
MR Evans (Rookie)
** Before you ask... Saucedo, Speier, Voth & Thornton don't make the cut.
** No doubt other minor adjustments can be made. Some starting pitching depth might be helpful, maybe a long reliever that can spot start, if nothing else.
And all of this can be done to dramatically improve the Seattle offense while adding... wait for it... ONLY 3 MILLION DOLLARS to the payroll.
The Ball says "this is a World Series contending roster."
What do you say?
- Chuck